If you've shopped for electricity lately, you've probably seen a chart showing Texas rates climbing year after year — and felt pressure to lock in a long contract before prices rise even more.
Here's what those charts don't show: the best fixed-rate plans available to Texas shoppers have gotten roughly 24% cheaper since October 2025.
Both things are true at the same time. The difference comes down to what's actually being measured.
What we found
Clear Energy Facts has tracked Texas electricity plan prices daily since October 2025. Our index follows the ten lowest-priced true fixed-rate plans in each competitive utility territory — no bill-credit plans, no free-nights gimmicks, nothing that looks cheap at one usage level and expensive at another.
In the CenterPoint (Houston) area, the average of the ten cheapest 12–23 month fixed plans fell from about 14¢ per kWh in October 2025 to about 10.7¢ by August 2026. The other Texas utility territories show the same downward trend.
So why do other charts show rates rising?
Most "average Texas electricity rate" charts use data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). That data is legitimate — but it doesn't measure the price of plans you can buy today.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
| Month | Average Residential Price |
|---|---|
| October 2025 | 16.10¢ per kWh |
| November 2025 | 16.04¢ per kWh |
| December 2025 | 15.87¢ per kWh |
| January 2026 | 15.69¢ per kWh |
| February 2026 | 15.41¢ per kWh |
| March 2026 | 16.39¢ per kWh |
| April 2026 | 16.99¢ per kWh |
| May 2026 | 16.44¢ per kWh |
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
The EIA takes total revenue collected from residential customers and divides it by total electricity sold. That number includes:
- Customers still on contracts signed in 2024 or 2025
- Expensive month-to-month renewal rates
- Variable plans and gimmick plans
- Areas outside the competitive market entirely
In other words, it measures what Texans have been paying — not what a shopper can get today. When new plans get cheaper, the EIA average doesn't move until enough old contracts expire. It's a lagging indicator by design.
That's how the EIA series can inch up from 16.10¢ (October 2025) to 16.44¢ (May 2026) while the best available offers dropped by a quarter.
Why this matters for your wallet
The gap between these two numbers isn't academic. Some sites compare a plan against the EIA average and call it a deal: "14¢ — that's 15% below the Texas average!"
But if true fixed-rate plans are available at 11¢, that 14¢ plan isn't a deal. It's just cheaper than an average inflated by people who are overpaying. At 1,000 kWh a month, the difference between 11¢ and 14¢ is about $360 a year.
Worse, a rising average-rate chart can scare shoppers into 24- or 36-month contracts "before rates go up" — at the exact moment the market is moving in their favor.
The bottom line
Before you accept a claim that Texas electricity rates are rising, check what the number actually measures. What existing customers collectively paid last quarter is not the price you'll be offered today.
Right now, the cleanest data point for shoppers is this: the best true fixed-rate plans in Texas are cheaper than they've been at any point since we started tracking — and the trend is still pointing down.